From
teamspeedkills.com
Making the right comparison, the three key players, and why
UGA won't score more than 24 points.
Alabama is understandably the favorite in the 2012 SEC
Championship Game, so many previews I've seen have been focused on how
Georgia can pull in elements of Texas A&M's offensive game plan.
It's only natural, given that the Aggies are the only team to have
defeated the Crimson Tide this year while also putting up the most
points
Bama has given up on the season.
While I get where that approach is coming from, it's not the best
thing
UGA could be doing with its time. Georgia's best chance is to dance with the one who brung it.
Aaron Murray does have some wheels, but he's not Johnny Manziel.
With Michael Bennett and Marlon Brown out for the season, it wouldn't
be wise for the Bulldogs to suddenly start lining up in four- and
five-wide sets nearly every play. We won't be seeing Mike Bobo bust out the diamond formation
either. Georgia is a pro-style team, with lots of running out of the
I-formation and most formations having at least one tight end on the
line.
And while Texas A&M scored the most points on
Bama, LSU is the
one that gained the most yards. LSU was also the only SEC team to hold
the Tide under 400 total yards at 331 on the game, while
Bama outgained
the Aggies in their contest. The Tigers had Alabama beat until A.J. McCarron
led a furious two-minute drill in which the Bayou Bengals' defense
inexplicably fell apart. Had LSU cashed in on some opportunities better
earlier in the game, we'd be previewing a rematch of last year's SEC
Championship Game right now.
Replicating
LSU's success will heavily rely on Murray and Todd Gurley.
Murray will have to be sharp like his former teammate Zach Mettenberger
was, as the latter picked
Bama apart with a controlled passing game.
Gurley, who has been more consistent than his backfield mate Keith Marshall,
will need to do a good Jeremy Hill impression to keep the chains
moving.
LSU had a time of possession lead of 19:30 over Alabama, a big
factor in how the Tigers controlled the game. A team like Oregon doesn't
care about time of possession, but teams like Alabama,
LSU, and Georgia
certainly do.
I ran a score projection for this game using my usual method
(which excludes I-AA action). It came out with a 30-20 Alabama win with
the Tide outgaining
Georgia 390-311. That outcome would make a ton of
sense, and I'll stick with it for my pick. It's true that UGA has a
fantastic offense, but relative to opponents' season averages in total
yardage, the
LSU game is the only bad game Bama's defense had. Every
other opponent got held to more than 100 yards under their typical rate.
Every team also scored at least 12.5 points under their season averages
for points scored. Using the latter heuristic and
UGA's 37.36 points
per game rate, UGA's maximum point total is right at about 24.
I don't know if 24 points is enough for Georgia to beat Alabama.
While it's true that the Bulldogs' defense has finished strong, it's
also true that Ole Miss, Auburn, and Georgia Tech don't make up a
murderer's row. They're going to need Jarvis Jones to take over the game
like he did
against Missouri and especially Florida, but Alabama won't be doing
stupid things like running sweeps to his side or having a
quarterback-turned-tight end try to block him. He's the best singular
defensive talent in this game, a dominant force the likes of which
Alabama doesn't have.
Bama's tackles are big, but they might not be fast
enough to contain him.
I certainly do give Georgia a chance to win this game. It would make
for a fantastic story about persistence for Mark Richt and mean that
Nick Saban would, believe it or not, have only one conference
championship in his first half dozen years in Tuscaloosa. It's not what
I'm picking, but it could happen.
Alabama (-7.5) over Georgia 30-20
My Favorite NFL Moment of 2012
Tennessee Volunteer Basketball Preview
Tennessee Coaching Search: 3 Realistic Choices to Replace Derek Dooley
Biggest Sports Headlines of 2012
Sports New Year's Resolutions for 2013