Tennessee Volunteers 2013 Game by Game Predictions

Football season is almost here! (thank you lord), and the Vols have a new coach, a new defense, and a new excitement in the fanbase. Now is as good a time as any to look at the new season and to preview the 2013 schedule.

TENNESSEE 2013 SCHEDULE
Aug. 31 - Austin Peay
Sept. 7 - Western Kentucky
Sept. 14 - at Oregon
Sept. 21 - at Florida
Sept. 28 - South Alabama
Oct. 5 - Georgia
Oct. 19 - South Carolina
Oct. 26 - at Alabama
Nov. 2 - at Missouri
Nov. 9 - Auburn
Nov 23 - Vanderbilt
Nov. 30 - at Kentucky

Tennessee has hired former Cincinnati head coach Butch Jones. Former coach Derek Dooley left him a cupboard that was far from bare,and Jones has proven he can win big games. Coach Jones has brought new life to the fanbase and recruits alike. The Vols now boast the #1 recruiting class for the 2014 season.

Tennessee will switch back to a 4-3 defense after one year of the 3-4. Last years defense was quite possibly the worst defense the Vols have ever put on the field. The 4-3 should improve the overall defense as just about anything would be better than last years disaster.

There will be a new quarterback heading the offense this year. Justin Worley has had some in game experience, but mobility isn't one of his strong suits. Nathan Peterman is a mobile quarterback that could very well fit into Jones's fast paced offense a little better than a strait pocket QB.

Aug. 31 - Austin Peay
August 31st starts the season against Austin Peay, this should be no more than a glorified practice and should give everyone an idea of what type of offensive plays and defensive schemes we can look forward to the rest of the season.

Sept. 7 - Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky is a very interesting game. I thought that Tennessee should have given Petrino more interest during the coaching search than they did. He is a proven winner and has done more with less talent. WKU has a SEC caliber running back and will be ready to fight it out. The talent level difference is why I think UT will get this one, I do believe it will turn out to be a whole lot closer than most fans want to believe.

Sept. 14 - at Oregon
It 's a little unfortunate for the Vols that this game showed up on the schedule this season. In a rebuilding stage with a new coach isn't the best position to be in going up against Oregon in Eugene. I do think that UT can and should keep this game within a respectable range, and most fans will be OK with a 7-10 point loss. What they can't do is get blown out, to get deflated so early in the season going into SEC play could be devastating. I'm not conceding anything and I believe miracles happen, but it would take one for the Vols to pull a win here.

Sept. 21 - at Florida
I'm still not sold on Muschamp being the coach the Gators keep for the long haul. They got embarrassed by Louisville and looked like they could fall apart at any moment last year, but they didn't, and 11 wins in the SEC can't be ignored.Tennessee hasn't beat the Gators in almost a decade, sadly, the streak will more than likely continue in 2013.

Sept. 28 - South Alabama
South Alabama will be a good game to get all of the frustrations out after the Florida game.

Oct. 5 - Georgia
Tennessee vs. UGA is a great tradition game, and UT could have won this game last year if they had anything resembling a defense on the field. I like to think of this as something of a "question mark" game. UGA has better talent and more success recently, but if Tennessee gets some calls and a couple of turnovers, this game could go either way.

Oct. 19 - South Carolina
I'm in the minority thinking Tennessee will win this game outright, but I do. I really think this is a must win game for Coach Jones. Coming into this game with a probable record of 3-3 with no wins in the SEC, a win here could be the turning point in the season. What "The Ole' Ball Coach" has done for the Gamecocks is amazing, and they will have another great team this season. South Carolina is the best chance for Jones to pull an upset in the SEC, something Dooley could never do. This game will be the deciding factor for a successful season or a disappointing one.

Oct. 26 - at Alabama
Nothing to see here, maybe in a couple of years.

Nov. 2 - at Missouri
Tennessee lost in OT last year to the Tigers after dominating the first half. Many people, myself included, think the game was lost due mostly to coaching incompetence. That won't be the case this year.  Mizzou is in over its head playing in the SEC, and Tennessee should be angry and vengeful after playing Bama the week before.

Nov. 9 - Auburn
If there was any team as disappointing as UT last year, it was Auburn. The Tigers have a new coach with a lot of intensity and ties to the school as an Offensive Coordinator. This is another "question mark" game, I think this game could go either way depending on the seasons each have had up to this point.

Nov. 23 - Vanderbilt
I don't understand the national attention Vanderbilt has been getting. I realize every dog has his day, and Vandy won a bowl game last year, but they didn't beat anybody that was any good. They did blow UT out, but it was the worst Tennessee team that ever took the field. I'm not afraid of Franklin and Vandy, and I don't think Coach Jones and the Tennessee team is either. UT wins this one big and proves a point.

Nov. 30 - at Kentucky
Stoops has been selling air to recruits and doing it well. I think that he could be the Wildcats savior, just not this year. Tennessee will win this game, but the Wildcats will be good in the near future if Stoops hangs around. 

The Vols should make a bowl this season, and the fans will be happy if they do. 6-6 and a bowl win would give so much hope to the Vol fans, and it isn't a reachable goal, it is a minimum standard. Anything less than 6 wins would be underachieving considering we have 3 easy OOC games and the last half of the season has 4 very winnable conference games.





 

Tennessee Recruiting So Far

With less than a month left before National Signing Day, Tennessee is clamoring to improve their #28 recruiting class rank. So far UT has 17 commits with 3 4*s and 1 in the ESPN top 300.

Riley Ferguson  #15 QB-PP  ESPN Top 300
Corey Vereen #21 OLB
Austin Sanders  #26 OT

Tennessee has several offers out with 5* and 4* players who are yet to declare. While having a top 25 recruiting class is respectable, playing in the SEC makes it a bit tougher than most conferences. UT needs to secure at least a top 15 class and actually needs a top 10 class within the next 2 years to compete with the rest of the SEC competition.

A few of the undeclared prospects Tennessee needs to secure are:

Derrick Green #5 RB
Vonn Bell  #5 S

Both of these players have been highly recruited and have Tennessee high on their list. Green took an official visit to UT on  09/14/2012, the first one he took and one of only three he has taken so far. Green's list is very long, so to have him on campus is a big plus. It is unfortunate that Tennessee has went through a coaching change this season, but the good news is Jay Graham was retained and was Green's recruiter for his visit. Vonn Bell grew up close to Tennessee Football and has an official visit scheduled for 01/25/2013. He has been recruited and will visit Ohio State and Alabama in January also.

Marquez North and Shelton Gibson have taken or will visit in January and have been offered by the Vols, although they are still uncommitted. Landing any of the undeclared recruits listed will push UT's class significantly higher, which doesn't necessarily equal success, but could definitely make a huge difference next season. Tennessee has also offered Robert Nkemdiche, the #1 recruit in the nation. There probably isn't a realistic chance of landing him, but at least UT and Butch Jones are going all out on the recruiting trail so far.

UT's 2013 class really comes down to this month, good visits, and a whole lot of luck. Realistically it will take UT at least two years, two winning years, to get a great recruiting class.  With all that came out about Derek Dooley's recruiting practices, it should be safe to say UT can only get better on the recruiting trail.

As of today the top 5 recruiting classes look like this:

1	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	23
3	Alabama Crimson Tide	21
2	Florida Gators	25
4	Ohio State Buckeyes	21
5	USC Trojans	15

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SEC Championship Game Preview

From teamspeedkills.com

Making the right comparison, the three key players, and why UGA won't score more than 24 points.

Alabama is understandably the favorite in the 2012 SEC Championship Game, so many previews I've seen have been focused on how Georgia can pull in elements of Texas A&M's offensive game plan. It's only natural, given that the Aggies are the only team to have defeated the Crimson Tide this year while also putting up the most points Bama has given up on the season.
While I get where that approach is coming from, it's not the best thing UGA could be doing with its time. Georgia's best chance is to dance with the one who brung it. Aaron Murray does have some wheels, but he's not Johnny Manziel. With Michael Bennett and Marlon Brown out for the season, it wouldn't be wise for the Bulldogs to suddenly start lining up in four- and five-wide sets nearly every play. We won't be seeing Mike Bobo bust out the diamond formation either. Georgia is a pro-style team, with lots of running out of the I-formation and most formations having at least one tight end on the line.
And while Texas A&M scored the most points on Bama, LSU is the one that gained the most yards. LSU was also the only SEC team to hold the Tide under 400 total yards at 331 on the game, while Bama outgained the Aggies in their contest. The Tigers had Alabama beat until A.J. McCarron led a furious two-minute drill in which the Bayou Bengals' defense inexplicably fell apart. Had LSU cashed in on some opportunities better earlier in the game, we'd be previewing a rematch of last year's SEC Championship Game right now.
Replicating LSU's success will heavily rely on Murray and Todd Gurley. Murray will have to be sharp like his former teammate Zach Mettenberger was, as the latter picked Bama apart with a controlled passing game. Gurley, who has been more consistent than his backfield mate Keith Marshall, will need to do a good Jeremy Hill impression to keep the chains moving. LSU had a time of possession lead of 19:30 over Alabama, a big factor in how the Tigers controlled the game. A team like Oregon doesn't care about time of possession, but teams like Alabama, LSU, and Georgia certainly do.
I ran a score projection for this game using my usual method (which excludes I-AA action). It came out with a 30-20 Alabama win with the Tide outgaining Georgia 390-311. That outcome would make a ton of sense, and I'll stick with it for my pick. It's true that UGA has a fantastic offense, but relative to opponents' season averages in total yardage, the LSU game is the only bad game Bama's defense had. Every other opponent got held to more than 100 yards under their typical rate. Every team also scored at least 12.5 points under their season averages for points scored. Using the latter heuristic and UGA's 37.36 points per game rate, UGA's maximum point total is right at about 24.
I don't know if 24 points is enough for Georgia to beat Alabama. While it's true that the Bulldogs' defense has finished strong, it's also true that Ole Miss, Auburn, and Georgia Tech don't make up a murderer's row. They're going to need Jarvis Jones to take over the game like he did against Missouri and especially Florida, but Alabama won't be doing stupid things like running sweeps to his side or having a quarterback-turned-tight end try to block him. He's the best singular defensive talent in this game, a dominant force the likes of which Alabama doesn't have. Bama's tackles are big, but they might not be fast enough to contain him.
I certainly do give Georgia a chance to win this game. It would make for a fantastic story about persistence for Mark Richt and mean that Nick Saban would, believe it or not, have only one conference championship in his first half dozen years in Tuscaloosa. It's not what I'm picking, but it could happen.
Alabama (-7.5) over Georgia 30-20

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